清水河流域生态系统服务评估及预测
doi: 10.12153/j.issn.1674-991X.20210341
Assessment and prediction of ecosystem services in Qingshui River Basin
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摘要:
城镇化扩张、农业活动和生态修复等人为因素给清水河流域土地格局和生态环境带来了显著改变,评估并预测未来的土地格局以及生态系统服务与价值对于流域生态可持续发展具有重要意义。基于CA-Markov模型和GIS软件,以预测+设计的方式通过InVEST模型模拟了未来生态系统服务与价值。结果显示:1)清水河流域2000—2018年单位面积碳储量、单位面积土壤保持量、单位面积产水量分别为100.68 t/hm2、800.62 t/hm2、57.88 mm,除碳储量呈减小趋势外,产水量和土壤保持量均呈增长趋势;2)2018年流域生态系统服务价值为24.42亿元,比2000年减少了2.2%,分别为该区2018年农林渔牧业总产值、GDP的2.31、0.78倍;3)未来在坡度大于15°的区域退耕还林条件下,除产水量显著减小外,流域碳储量、土壤保持量生态系统服务价值均显著提升。研究表明,近20年清水河流域在气候均质条件下,生态系统服务及其价值的提升仍然不显著甚至有所下降,但在大于15°陡坡上的植树造林措施能够有效改善这一趋势。
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关键词:
- 清水河流域 /
- 生态系统服务 /
- CA-Markov模型 /
- 退耕还林
Abstract:Rapid urbanization, agricultural activities and ecological restoration significantly altered land-use pattern and eco-environments of Qingshui River Basin. It is critical for assessing and projecting the future land-use patterns, ecosystem service and its values for ecologically sustainable areas. Based on the CA-Markov model and GIS software, the future ecosystem service and its values were simulated by using InVEST model in the way of prediction plus design. The results showed that: 1) In 2000, 2009 and 2018, the average values of carbon storage, soil conservation, and water yield in Qingshui River Basin approached approximately 100.68 t/hm2, 800.62 t/hm2, and 57.88 mm, respectively, exhibiting the increasing trends in water yield and soil conservation except for carbon storage which had a decreasing trend. 2) The total ecosystem service values in the study area reached approximately 2.44 billion yuan in 2018, with a 2.2% decrease compared with the level in 2000. This value was 2.31 times of the total output value of agriculture, forestry, fishery and animal husbandry, and 0.78 times of local gross domestic product (GDP). 3) As “Grain for Green” practices were implemented in the regions with >15° slopes, the ecosystem service values of carbon storage and soil conservation got pronouncedly improved, whereas water yield exhibited an obvious decreased trend. The research showed that under the condition of a homogeneous climate in Qingshui River Basin in the last 20 years, the ecosystem service and its values had not significantly increased or even declined. Specifically, the afforestation practices on steep slopes of >15° may help reverse the trend of ecological degradation in Qingshui River Basin.
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Key words:
- Qingshui River Basin /
- ecosystem service /
- CA-Markov model /
- Grain for Green
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图 1 清水河流域高程
Figure 1. Elevation of Qingshui River Basin
图 2 研究技术路线
Figure 2. Research technology roadmap
图 3 清水河流域2000—2018年生态系统服务变化
Figure 3. Changes of ecosystem services in Qingshui River Basin from 2000 to 2018
图 4 不同预测情景下2027年相较于2018年生态系统服务变化
注:S为自然发展情景;S1为退耕还林情景;S2为深度退耕还林情景;S3为退耕还草情景;S4为深度退耕还草情景。
Figure 4. Changes of ecosystem services in 2027 compared with 2018 under different forecast scenarios
图 5 2000—2018年以及不同预测情景下单位面积生态系统服务价值的变化
Figure 5. Changes of ecosystem service values per unit area in 2000-2018 and under different forecast scenarios
表 1 清水河流域不同土地利用类型碳密度参数
Table 1. Carbon density parameters of land use types in Qingshui River Basin
t/hm2 土地利用类型 Ca Cb Cc Cd 耕地 6.60 0.66 92.90 0 林地 29.66 9.79 110.75 1.68 草地 1.03 2.61 62.90 0.24 水域 2.29 0 17.16 0 建设用地 7.61 4.51 42.17 0 表 2 清水河流域不同土地利用类型单位面积的生态系统服务价值
Table 2. Ecosystem service values per unit area in different land use types in Qingshui River Basin
元/hm2 生态系统
服务类型耕地 林地 草地 水域 建设
用地供给
服务食物生产 878.75 299.81 103.38 827.06 0 原料生产 413.53 682.32 144.73 237.78 0 水资源
供应20.68 351.50 82.71 8 570.37 0 气体调节 692.66 2 243.39 527.25 796.04 0 调节
服务气候调节 372.18 6 719.83 1 385.32 2 367.45 0 净化调节 103.38 1 995.27 454.88 5 737.70 0 水文调节 279.13 4 900.31 1 013.14 105 697.76 0 土壤保持 1 064.83 2 739.62 640.97 961.45 0 维持养分循环 124.06 206.76 51.69 72.37 0 支持
服务生物多
样性134.40 2 491.51 578.94 2 636.24 0 文化
服务美学景观 62.03 1 095.85 258.46 1 953.92 0 合计 4 145.62 23 726.17 5 241.47 129 858.13 0 表 3 清水河流域不同力度生态修复措施下的土地利用情景
Table 3. Land use scenarios under different ecological restoration measures in Qingshui River Basin
情景 设计方法 相对变化(相较于2018年) 基础情景 以清水河流域2018年土地利用格局为基准 耕地、林地、草地、水域、建设用地面积分别为604.45、647.58、859.00、15.79、
71.40 km2自然发展
情景通过CA-Markov模型模拟自然发展情景下的2027年清水河土地利用 耕地、建设用地面积增加42.04、12.34 km2,林地、草地、水域面积分别减少31.20、19.18、4.83 km2 退耕还林 高坡度的区域容易发生土壤侵蚀,基于预测的2027年土地利用数据,为了改善水土流失,将坡度大于25°的耕地改造为林地 耕地、草地、水域面积分别减少6.76、19.18、4.83 km2,林地、建设用地面积分别增加17.61、12.34 km2 深度退耕
还林基于预测的2027年土地利用数据,将坡度大于15°的耕地改造为林地 耕地、草地、水域面积分别减少165.13、19.18、4.83 km2,林地、建设用地面积分别增加175.98、12.34 km2 退耕还草 基于预测的2027年土地利用数据,将坡度大于25°的耕地改造为草地 耕地、林地、水域面积分别减少6.76、31.20、4.83 km2,
草地、建设用地面积分别增加29.63、12.34 km2深度退耕
还草基于预测的2027年土地利用数据,将坡度大于15°的耕地改造为草地 耕地、林地、水域面积分别减少165.13、31.20、4.83 km2,
草地、建设用地面积分别增加188.00、12.34 km2表 4 清水河流域单位面积生态系统服务变化
Table 4. Changes of ecosystem services per unit in Qingshui River Basin
年份 单位面积碳
储量/(t/hm2)单位面积土壤
保持量/(t/hm2)产水量/
mm2000 101.38 800.29 56.305 2009 100.47 800.76 57.855 2018 100.28 800.83 59.492 天下网标王郑州百度网站优化价格湘潭网站建设网站优化淮南手机网站优化崇明区企业网站优化哪家好内链如何优化企业的网站美咖网站怎么优化天津模板网站优化重庆江津网站优化有哪些济南网址网站优化网站自己可以优化排名吗仿站网站优化景洪如何优化网站天台网站优化费用如何做好网站优化和推广昌平什么是网站优化西安seo网站优化神农架seo网站优化枞阳县网站seo优化兴宁网站关键词优化软件优化胖哥槟榔网站首页的TKD林州市网站seo优化排名网站排名优化服务 sit网站优化域名选购如何对网站进行测速优化搜索网站的优化荆门工厂网站优化怎么做百度网站优化资讯对一个网站优化昆山网站关键词优化苏州无锡网站优化香港通过《维护国家安全条例》两大学生合买彩票中奖一人不认账让美丽中国“从细节出发”19岁小伙救下5人后溺亡 多方发声卫健委通报少年有偿捐血浆16次猝死汪小菲曝离婚始末何赛飞追着代拍打雅江山火三名扑火人员牺牲系谣言男子被猫抓伤后确诊“猫抓病”周杰伦一审败诉网易中国拥有亿元资产的家庭达13.3万户315晚会后胖东来又人满为患了高校汽车撞人致3死16伤 司机系学生张家界的山上“长”满了韩国人?张立群任西安交通大学校长手机成瘾是影响睡眠质量重要因素网友洛杉矶偶遇贾玲“重生之我在北大当嫡校长”单亲妈妈陷入热恋 14岁儿子报警倪萍分享减重40斤方法杨倩无缘巴黎奥运考生莫言也上北大硕士复试名单了许家印被限制高消费奥巴马现身唐宁街 黑色着装引猜测专访95后高颜值猪保姆男孩8年未见母亲被告知被遗忘七年后宇文玥被薅头发捞上岸郑州一火锅店爆改成麻辣烫店西双版纳热带植物园回应蜉蝣大爆发沉迷短剧的人就像掉进了杀猪盘当地回应沈阳致3死车祸车主疑毒驾开除党籍5年后 原水城县长再被查凯特王妃现身!外出购物视频曝光初中生遭15人围殴自卫刺伤3人判无罪事业单位女子向同事水杯投不明物质男子被流浪猫绊倒 投喂者赔24万外国人感慨凌晨的中国很安全路边卖淀粉肠阿姨主动出示声明书胖东来员工每周单休无小长假王树国卸任西安交大校长 师生送别小米汽车超级工厂正式揭幕黑马情侣提车了妈妈回应孩子在校撞护栏坠楼校方回应护栏损坏小学生课间坠楼房客欠租失踪 房东直发愁专家建议不必谈骨泥色变老人退休金被冒领16年 金额超20万西藏招商引资投资者子女可当地高考特朗普无法缴纳4.54亿美元罚金浙江一高校内汽车冲撞行人 多人受伤
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